Archive for June, 2006

Bad Data + Weak Fed = Buy Gold

Thursday, June 29th, 2006

Bill Fleckenstein makes the point that while prices plummeted, the gold and silver ETFs took in more metal. The money quote:

What this points out: The un-leveraged “cash-type” buyers are availing themselves of dips in price to get more exposure. Meanwhile, the leveraged futures traders are being forced to sell weakness. I recently beefed up my metals’ exposure and will now be at full strength as we head into the upcoming week’s data.

I think folks should keep that distinction in mind. Due to leverage, people who trade futures tend to chase strength and sell weakness, while cash buyers tend to do the opposite. That phenomenon is one reason why people who trade futures usually lose money.

Paper Trading Doesn’t Work

Wednesday, June 28th, 2006

D.R. Barton says “paper trading” doesn’t work. He’s right. Here’s a much better way:

  1. Develop and back test your system or strategy. This can be done with computer software or by hand, looking back at charts.
  2. Do real-time testing on live data. Keep track of points won or lost and not dollars and cents!
  3. Instead of paper trading, use real trading, in very small size, to practice. Stock traders can trade 10 share lots. Commodity traders can trade e-mini contracts and forex traders can trade mini forex contracts.
  4. Once you have been consistently profitable, only then can you ramp up your trading size.
  5. Ramp up slowly!

    Random Observations

    Wednesday, June 28th, 2006
    • If it holds today, the S&P has held the 1240-ish level for seven days in a row. On the other hand, the 200-day moving average (currently about 1261) hasn’t been penetrated on the upside either. So the market is in a tight range. I suspect it’s the calm before the storm.
    • Don’t expect much to happen until the Fed makes its interest rate decision tomorrow afternoon. After a brief flurry, volume will probably dry up again until after the July 4th holiday.
    • EGY remains very strong — over $9 this morning, another new high.
    • Of the watch list stocks, the bullish point and figure charts are ALJ, FCX, FTO, HOC, IPS, PCU, and RAIL.
    • Peter Lassonde (Newmont Minining) doesn’t think gold is going up until September. In the meantime, he thinks central banks will be selling during the summer months. He’s one of the best, so he may be right. But we’re going to continue to ease back in whenever gold and silver show signs of a possible bottom — just in case he’s wrong.

    Money Management is Everything

    Tuesday, June 27th, 2006

    I was going through some old articles that I’ve saved over the years and I came across two gems written by Gary Smith way back in 1999. One is on expectancy and the other is on the concept of thinking of the equity in your account the same way that a retailer thinks about inventory. (more…)

    PCU Breaks Out

    Monday, June 26th, 2006

    Remember Southern Peru Copper (PCU)? We bought it at 51.20 and sold it less than 10 months later at 87.47. Well, it’s looking good again:

    PCU 6-26-06.png

    The P&F is pointing to $101. It’s showing good relative strength.

    The New Currency ETFs

    Monday, June 26th, 2006

    The currency ETFs are up and running:

    Australian Dollar (FXA)
    British Pound (FXB)
    Canadian Dollar (FXC)
    Mexican Peso (FXM)
    Swedish Krona (FXS)
    Swiss Franc (FXF)

    This should be a good deal because currencies usually trend very well.

    The Importance of Position Sizing

    Monday, June 26th, 2006

    Position sizing is the least talked about and most important factor that determines investment success. In his book, “Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom,” Dr. Van K. Tharp uses the term “position sizing” in preference to the more widely used term, “money management.” He says that money management means different things to different people, but position sizing is clear. It’s the answer to the question of “how much?” The number shares or contracts that should be bought or sold. (more…)

    More Bullish Evidence From Gold

    Thursday, June 22nd, 2006

    On June 14, I posted a Silver ETF (SLV) point and figure chart that indicated a possible bottom for silver. SLV was at 96 at the time and that was the low. SLV has been steadily moving up since and closed yesterday at 105. Now gold is showing a double top breakout on the traditional P&F chart:

    Gold 6-22-061.png

    Next resistance is around $620. It’s a day to day thing, but the metals are showing some signs of life again.

    Don’t Squander Your Advantage

    Wednesday, June 21st, 2006

    One of my favorite investment/trading writers on the internet is James “Rev Shark” DePorre. He writes for RealMoney.com. I can’t link you to it because it’s a paid-subscription Web site. But here’s what he wrote this morning:

    In response to another post, he wrote:

    Bob, I believe that in most cases the best approach for hedge fund managers like you is quite different than the best approach for individual investors. I write the trading diary from the perspective of the individual trader who is running a small amount of capital and capable of becoming fully invested very quickly. I believe it is unproductive for them to worry about market timing to the degree that someone who is managing $100 million might. Small individuals have a big advantage and they squander it when they try to be masters of market timing.

    In my experience individual investors that are trying to copy institutional investors have a tendency to average down too fast and too aggressively in a poor market. In most cases they would be far better off to wait for the market to uptick or trend upward rather than buying weakness.

    And then later on he gave a more complete response:

    I posted some comments in response to Bob Marcin in Columnist Conversation about the differences between small individual investors and large institutional investors that I want to expand on a bit. I believe one of the major failings of stock market journalism is that almost no one seems to appreciate that difference.

    In most cases, the attitude is what is a good investment style for a giant fund is equally good for individual investors. The end result is that we end up with investors who believe they can outperform giant mutual funds by simply mimicking what they do, but without the advantages of access to management, reams of research and huge amounts of capital.

    It really isn’t surprising that the media has such a strong bias toward an institutional style of investing. Most of the folks we see on television who offer advice are institutional money managers. Many, if not most, have never been involved in just managing their own small personal investment stake. They simply don’t understand the different strengths and weakness that individual investors possess.

    One of the best examples of an institutional mindset is the bias toward averaging down and disregarding chart patterns. Big funds tend to buy weakness and ignore chart patterns because they have little choice in the matter. They can’t stop out of a position that breaks a technical level because they would never get a decent fill. Instead, they are forced to comfort themselves with fundamentals and use the lower prices to reduce their cost basis.

    If ignoring charts and buying weakness is how you approach the market, and you have had some success, you are going to recommend that others do the same thing even if they are in very different circumstances. If you really think about the strengths and weaknesses of an small individual investor, you would likely make some modifications to the way you approach the market. If you recognize that someone can easily enter and exit stocks with no price slippage, wouldn’t you take that into account?

    As you consider investment advice, make sure you understand the perspective of the people who are offering it. The vast majority have good intentions, but they are seeing things through the prism of their personal experience. In many cases, that means their advice is better suited for big funds rather than small individual investors.

    Indeed. Individual investors have a huge advantage over institutional investors and most of them don’t even realize it.

    We May Be Getting There

    Wednesday, June 21st, 2006

    As readers of the Smart Money Report know, we got out of our metals positions a while back and we’re 75% in cash. We started accumulating the Silver ETF (SLV) on Monday morning with a 5% exposure and we plan to add to that position.

    As time goes by it’s starting to look like the worst may be over for the metals. And the summer months have been an excellent time to accumulate mining stocks for the last several years since this bull market began. This year may be no exception.

    The mining stocks are not as cheap relative to the metals as I would like to see but they’re in the ball park. We’re in no hurry, but if the metals keep behaving the way they have this week we will probably gradually build up our position again.