Random Observations

  • If it holds today, the S&P has held the 1240-ish level for seven days in a row. On the other hand, the 200-day moving average (currently about 1261) hasn’t been penetrated on the upside either. So the market is in a tight range. I suspect it’s the calm before the storm.
  • Don’t expect much to happen until the Fed makes its interest rate decision tomorrow afternoon. After a brief flurry, volume will probably dry up again until after the July 4th holiday.
  • EGY remains very strong — over $9 this morning, another new high.
  • Of the watch list stocks, the bullish point and figure charts are ALJ, FCX, FTO, HOC, IPS, PCU, and RAIL.
  • Peter Lassonde (Newmont Minining) doesn’t think gold is going up until September. In the meantime, he thinks central banks will be selling during the summer months. He’s one of the best, so he may be right. But we’re going to continue to ease back in whenever gold and silver show signs of a possible bottom — just in case he’s wrong.

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